Every gameweek the same question appears: who gets the armband? Most managers answer it with a feeling. Better managers answer it with a framework, and the framework is simple enough to run in five minutes.
Filter 1: the fixture
Remove any candidate facing a top defence away from home. Keep candidates at home against teams that concede chances freely. The fixture is the biggest single factor in any captain pick, and it eliminates half the options immediately.
Filter 2: attacking involvement
Of the survivors, keep the players most involved in their team attack: shots, chances created, penalty-box touches. A player can score without involvement, but he cannot do it reliably. Involvement is the best predictor of future returns.
Filter 3: minutes and set pieces
Remove anyone who might not start or who regularly comes off early. Then give a bonus to players on penalties and direct free kicks, because set pieces add a steady stream of points that open play alone does not provide.
When the framework gives a tie
If two candidates survive all three filters, take the popular one. A differential captain only makes sense when you are chasing a rival and need a swing. When you are level or ahead, the safe armband protects your position, and protection wins more mini-leagues than gambling does.